Sunday, August 27, 2006

Room for Improvement

by Osman Parvez




Since first writing about the housing bubble in 2004 for The Windwalker Report, I've been saying (1) there is strong evidence for a bubble and (2) the markets experiencing the greatest appreciation were most susceptible to the downside risk.

My opinion hasn't changed.

By now you've no doubt heard that in some parts of the country, the housing bubble is finally deflating. In those areas, inventories are very high, sales have slowed, and foreclosures loom. Speculators have exited and those who bought in 2005 to flip, but lack the ability to hold comfortably, are starting to sweat.

So, if the places that saw the most bubble activity now have the biggest risk, what does that mean for real estate here in Boulder and surrounding areas? The trouble is that there isn't a lot of detailed information available about local markets. It's hard to know how one community has appreciated relative to other parts of the country. Even when information is published, it's usually outdated or too general to be useful.

Do you know how the Boulder real estate market differs from the bubble markets? How about Broomfield, Longmont, or Superior?

This is one of the biggest reasons I analyze our local real estate in detail. It helps us understand what's happening in the market so we can better inform our buyers and sellers. If you're a regular reader of this blog, it should help give you key information and insight too. That's our goal.

So take a look around, check out the links on the main page or use the search boxes. You should find a great deal of information, much of it unavailable elsewhere.

While I enjoy blogging and believe it benefits our clients and non-client readers alike, I'm also hoping to make it better.

This blog is heavy on the analysis side with plenty of charts and graphs highlighting trends in the market. That's good but I see room for improvement. In the future, I'm going to take a little extra time to explain the charts and graphs. I think it's critical to put my analysis in context. Look for this change in coming blog posts and if you have any comments, please let me know.







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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

3 comments:

  1. We are heavy on inventory here in KC. If you are a buyer you can get some great deals. In 18 years of doing real estate, I can't remember a better time to buy.

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  2. Do you know how the Boulder real estate market differs from the bubble markets?

    It is not a real-estate bubble.

    It is a credit bubble. That bubble is nation wide. If you wish to see the difference between various local markets, you need to look at the mortgage (and credit-card lending) differences between those markets.

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  3. The credit bubble impacts the entire country and deserves attention. If you know of a source for income to debt ratios for communities, please let me know. Otherwise, proxies come into play such as the volume of real estate sales, median income, education level, and median age. Definitely worth looking into.

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