The Future So Bright... Gotta Wear Shades

Next time you're wondering why ConocoPhillips and others are focusing on our region for renewable energy research, take a look at the National Renewable Energy Lab's Solar Maps.

Here's photovoltaic:

Now overlay Richard Florida's map of College Graduate Density:

Talent and capital. It's mobile... any questions?

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Bon Voyage, Charlie Brown

Dallice and I will be traveling for the next few weeks with limited access to email or voice messages. If you need assistance, please call Robbin.

She will be checking voice messages, scheduling showings, and coordinating coverage for our clients during our absence. You can reach Robbin at 303.993.6139 or at SKYPE: Silver Fern Homes.

---

Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call Osman at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Renewable Energy Rebates and Incentives

Do you want to learn more about rebates and other incentives to install renewable energy appliances, insulation, or windows? Look no further.

Visit the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE). Here's a link to the Colorado page, which includes information on local incentives like Climate Smart loans.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Exceptional High-End House Bargains [Boulder]

January is usually a slow month in Boulder real estate. Inventory hits a seasonal nadir and closings slow to a crawl. For savvy buyers, it's a good time to sift through available listings and see if any bargains remain.

Recently, we've looked at several properties that represent exceptional value. You have to pay to play, for these sort of deals are generally only available at the higher end of the market.

Here's a few to consider (click the links below for listing sheets):

2030 10th Street - the owners of this historic downtown home purchased it for $1.1MM two years ago. Completely remodeled with high end appliances and finishes. It's turn-key, beautiful and in a great down town Boulder location. Now asking $797,000.

9630 Mountain Ridge Place - According to the owner, construction costs alone were double what the bank wants on this short-sale. This 6,000SQ+ trophy class home is tucked into the foothills just outside of Boulder. We recently took a guided tour of this Frank Loyd Wright inspired property, taking over 200 photographs for our out of town clients. In addition to solid construction using mostly locally sourced materials, the owner spared no expense to build this dream home to his specifications. It features two outbuildings on 3 acres of land; a cottage for your guests and a gym. At $1.3MM, it's screaming bargain but the bank has an offer so you better hurry if you're interested.

1824 Pearl Street - This condo was built for a target sale price of $1.3MM. Beautiful fixtures, finishes, and high quality construction are evident throughout. The location is superb, just east of the Pearl Street Mall. The bank's asking price: $624,900. NOW UNDER CONTRACT

image: Justin Craigen

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you find and negotiate a great deal. We work with buyers and sellers. To learn more, call me at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

House Size Rules: The Market Reacts

A few months ago, we took clients to look at a house at in Boulder (2919 7th Street). They liked it but at the asking price of $875,000, it seemed way too high for the market. 2735 5th Street was a comparable listing and it was priced more than $100,000 less at $759,000.

We called up the listing agent to ask why this house was priced so high.

Her answer? 2919 17th was worth more because of its potential. It was on a large lot and under the newly passed compatible development regulations, this was an advantage.

As of January 1st, the new rules are in effect but the market began reacting months ago. Small houses on small lots are undeniably worth less in Boulder because under the new rules, their potential for improvement has been restricted. Stay tuned for more shifts in the market.

p.s. Neither of the houses mentioned above sold last year and both are likely to be re-listed in the Spring. There may be a considerable cost savings to purchasing these homes before they are re-listed. Contact me if you'd like to learn more.

---

Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Blowing Bubbles in Boulder

Three years ago, I told you that compared with true bubble cities, our regional real estate market was much more rational. I expected that we would see a downside to the cycle, but nothing like true bubble cities. See my posts, Boulder Bubble and House Price Index.

Two years ago, I wrote about why the downside was limited.

Today, Denver is leading the Case-Shiller Index. From IREN:

Denver’s housing market showed only a only a 0.1 percent dip in housing prices in the year ending in October, compared with an overall drop of 7.3 percent for the 20 areas in the report. The 10-city index in the report fell overall by -6.4 percent.

Tom Clark, executive vice president of the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp., said that Denver’s No. 1 ranking is the latest sign that Denver’s economy is out-performing the nation’s.

“Job growth does matter,” Clark said. “What a concept.”

Gary Bauer, an independent residential broker in Denver couldn’t agree more.

“Once again, this shows the strength of the Denver market,” Bauer said. “We continue to lead the nation as far as recovering from the recession – the recession is not over yet – but we will be one of the first to emerge.”

Bauer said that “two-thirds” of the Denver-area housing market “still moving,” if not showing spectacular performance. Only the high-end market continues to be soft.

The chart below shows how the Denver-Aurora Metropolitcan Statistical Area now compares to select bubble cities. Denver is the red line.

It's important to note that the Denver-Aurora Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) does not include Boulder County, but it's still a good regional indicator. The area includes Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, and Park Counties.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Why, Hello 2010

Wishing you a happy and terrific New Year!

image: Swami Stream

Summary only...

Shadow Inventory in Boulder

Shadow inventory is property that is available for purchase but is not listed on the MLS. In Boulder, this largely consists of complete but unsold units at developments like the Peloton, Landmark Lofts, and Northfield Commons.

Foreclosed property (REOs) are also a component of this inventory as some lenders will not list their property on the MLS (or strangely, at all). Because Boulder has such a low foreclosure rate, this is a small piece of shadow inventory.

Finally, Boulder's market is highly seasonal. Many withdrawn and expired listings from the fall will reappear on the MLS in spring. This past year, inventory was very high. Expect many of these properties to reappear, likely with better pricing.

Here's where shadow inventory is relevant:

- If you're getting ready to buy a condo at the Peloton or other development, you should be aware that shadow inventory will be your competition if you decide to sell your property in the near-term. The builder sets the market price and if the market is soft, the price could be less than what you paid.

- If you're buying or selling a house, a good agent will offer to show you information on withdrawn and expired listings from the recent past. If you're a buyer, these properties may still be available for purchase. If you're a seller, they will likely become the competition for your listing in the spring.

First American Core Logic tracks shadow inventory, estimating it at 1.7 million units in 3Q09. That's up from 1.1 million last year.

Recommended Reading:

NPR| Shadow Inventory May Slow Housing Recovery

Calculated Risk| Shadow Inventory
WSJ| Are Banks Holding a Shadow Inventory of Homes

Bloomberg| Shadow Inventory Update 1 and Update 2

image: Randysonofrobert
---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

10 Biggest Price Reductions [Boulder Listings]

Time for another round of the biggest price reductions in Boulder (a continuing series). This post covers the last month of price cuts. Click the links in the table below to see each property's listing sheet (plus maps and photographs).

Which house do you think offers the most value?

Pound for pound, sign me up for Wild Plum. The builder bought the land for $1.4MM by itself in 2002. At 1.47MM, the asking price is what the owners paid for the property in 2002.


---
Silver Fern Homes can save you money when you buy a home. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Staging: Hammock in the Master Bedroom

Presentation matters. In our continuing series on staging, here's tip #232: Don't hang your hammock in the Master Bedroom.

---
Buying or selling a house? To avoid common real estate mistakes, call us at 303.310.5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Pay it Forward, 27x More Than Re/Max

The other day, I was talking to a client about Pay it Forward. It's a program we created to donate 5% of our gross commissions every year (our clients decide which non-profits receive the money).

My client is a CPA and she mentioned auditing a firm which advertised that they donate 10% of their profits to charity. To her surprise, they actually hadn't donated anything in years (they were booking losses). But that didn't keep them from promoting their giving program.

That's when it clicked. Maybe I should write more about Pay it Forward. It's the most generous giving program in real estate.

Before Dallice and I started Silver Fern Homes, we worked at Re/Max and supported the Children's Miracle Network. This program has generated million in donations, but for individual agents, it's a donation of $25 per transaction. Re/Max's marketing talks about the total but rarely mentions the amount per transaction.

Let's do the math.

Last month, the median sale price in Boulder was $480,000. Choose Silver Fern Homes as your Buyer's Agent and we will donate $672 to a non-profit organization of your choice (based on 2.8% commission to the buy-side). That's 27 times more than Re/Max.

Here's how it looks on a chart:

Why do we Pay it Forward? Because non-profits provide vital services and are an important part of our community. Recipients of the Pay it Forward program include the Boulder Humane Society, Circle of Care, Medicine Horse Program, Greenwood Wildlife Refuge, and Boulder Homeless Shelter (and many more).

At Silver Fern Homes, we put our money where out mouth is. Pay it Forward is about as far from corporate green washing as you can get.

-----------

Thinking about Boulder real estate? Choose a Realtor who provides you the most value for your money AND who shares your values. From finding a house to negotiating a great deal, Silver Fern Home's offers you a superior level of service. We've raised the standard and we're willing to prove it to you. Call us at 720.310.5007.

--------

Summary only...

Broomfield Real Estate Update [ConocoPhillips Edition]

As published in the last Silver Fern Report, here's an analysis of Broomfield real estate conditions. This covers traditional detached houses (not condos or town homes) updated with data through November.

In general, the market in Broomfield is continuing to show very robust signs of health. Would be sellers, perhaps recognizing that fundamentals are shifting, are not listing their properties for sale at the level of the recent past and large builders (Pulte) are not constructing at the same pace as before.

Remember, if you're thinking about buying or selling Broomfield real estate - please consider us at Silver Fern Homes. If you're a buyer, we can help you find a great house and negotiate an excellent deal. If you're a seller, we'll help you understand the market and what you need to do to get maximum value at sale.

New readers - please see the caveats to this sort of analysis before proceeding.

Inventory

This chart shows the ConocoPhillips Effect in action. There were 123 homes on the market in Broomfield during November, down 26% from last year. The market continues to have a traditional seasonal pattern but inventory levels have dropped over the last four consecutive years. Meanwhile, ConcoPhillips itself has been on a buying binge in Louisville picking up an additional 47.3 acres for $7.3MM.

Sales Volume

28 houses sold last month, up 64.7% from the year before. Over the last twelve and six months, 345 and 211 properties sold, respectively. Year over year, that's down 2% over the past twelve months and precisely equal to last year's sales volume over the past six months.

Absorption

Absorption was 18.7% last month, a level not seen since 2005.

Inventory vs Sales Volume

As regular readers know, this is one of my favorite charts because it shows inventory vs sales volume, expressed as percent change from the monthly four year average. At a glance, this chart answers the question "how's the market?"

Here you can clearly see inventory levels dropping steadily. Sales volume was lower than average before bouncing back in the fall.

Median Price

The median sold price was $272,500 in November.

Days on Market

For sold property in November, the average days to offer was 110 - up substantially from the month before.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at 720.310.5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

NEW: iPhone Boulder Real Estate Search App

Got an iPhone? Try this FREE real estate search application, courtesy of Silver Fern Homes.

2787If you try it, let me know what you think!

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

What If Christmas, Perhaps, Means a Bit More?

And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store? What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more?
- Dr. Seuss

Seasons's Greetings from Silver Fern Homes!

image: Ms. Tea

Summary only...

Staging: Sad Little Christmas Decoration

In this business, I look at a lot of houses. Sometimes I see stuff that stands out as curious (or hilarious).

On Monday, I took clients to see a beautiful mountain property. The house itself was great, with stunning views from the main living areas but this little Christmas stocking seemed sad hanging all by itself on the mantle.

By the way, I often take photographs because it help me and my clients remember the details of each property. For out of town clients who spot a property online, I'm also available to take photos and video before they schedule a flight.

I'm starting to amass a collection of curious photos. If you'd like this to be a regular feature on the blog, leave a comment and let me know.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at 720.310.5007
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Foreclosures in Boulder [Don't Panic]

It must be a slow news day because the Daily Camera is reporting on rising foreclosures in Boulder and Broomfield Counties. This is a good opportunity to update Silver Fern's foreclosure analysis.

From the Daily Camera:

Boulder County is on track to have one of the largest percentage increases in foreclosures this year among a dozen Colorado counties surveyed by the state's Division of Housing.

Yes, the year over year increase is large, but frankly this shouldn't surprise anyone tracking the market. The trend line is well established (obvious). Sorry, there is nothing new about this "news."

Let's go to the charts:

Foreclosures in Boulder County (Trend)

The chart above shows the trend of foreclosures in Boulder County. As you can see, the slope of the line appears very stable and nothing has really dented the pattern.

For you sky is falling types, the chart above might look pretty alarming. The reality is that foreclosures in Boulder County are far lower than neighboring Counties. Take a look at the next chart.

Foreclosures by Colorado County (% of Housing Units)

The chart above shows the number of foreclosures (blue bars) and percent of housing units in foreclosure (white dots). Boulder has the lowest foreclosure rate of any nearby county, period. It's been the lowest or 2nd lowest since I began tracking in April of 2006.

Just where are those foreclosures in Boulder County? Take a look at the next chart

Boulder County Foreclosure Breakdown

No surprise, they're mostly in Longmont (green). Boulder, which has more housing units, has fewer than a third the foreclosures.

Colorado County Foreclosure Trends

This last chart shows the trend for Boulder and neighboring Counties. At a glance, it's evident that Boulder and Douglas Counties have rising foreclosures. Weld and Jefferson appear to have stabilized. Adams, Denver, and Arapahoe Counties suffered huge spikes in foreclosures but have been dropping since.

I hope you've found this analysis helpful. As always, I welcome your comments. Don't forget, if you're looking for a good realtor - call us!

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at 720.310.5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Comments

I just went through my gmail account and discovered that Google has been filtering comments into the spam folder. Many apologies to those who wondered why I wasn't publishing your comments.

Oddly, Google was also filtering voice messages (I'm using Google Voice) into the spam folder too.

I've tweaked a few settings and it should now be working correctly. Thanks for your patience.

While I'm on this topic, I should mention that we don't have an official comment policy. Generally speaking, all relevant comments are published, even the ones that are inflammatory. My tolerance is high, but overly obnoxious, inappropriate, spammy, or otherwise rude ones are not published. A strong preference is given to those who use a username (or real name), rather than publishing anonymously.

Summary only...

Boulder Town Home and Condo Market Update

As published in the last Silver Fern Report, here's an analysis of market conditions for town homes and condos in the City of Boulder.

What's the difference between a salesperson and an advisor? A sales person's goal is to overcome your objections. A adviser provides you with information that helps you make a better decision.

At Silver Fern Homes, our agents think like advisers. If you're ready to buy or sell property and want expert advice, give us a call at (720) 310-5007.

Inventory

As you can see from the chart above, inventory in Boulder is seasonal. This year followed a fairly typical pattern. There were 377 properties on the market last month, 2.8% less than last year.

Sales Volume

Sales also follow a seasonal pattern, heightened by regular buying and selling by CU students (and their parents). There were 39 attached dwellings sold in November, up 117% from the year before. 587 units sold over the last twelve months, 14% fewer than the year before. 367 units sold over the past six months, down just 1% from the year before.

Absorption

Absorption is a measure of market liquidity. The higher the level, the more demand relative to available supply. At 9.5%, absorption was high in November (higher than any level since before 2004).

Inventory vs Sales Volume

The chart above is my favorite of the series. It shows monthly inventory and sales volume as percent change from the monthly average of the four previous years. With a quick glance, this chart gives you a sense of relative performance.

Just as with Boulder houses, November marked a break from the trend. For the first time in over a year, sales volume was higher than average, suggesting market stabilization. A good portion of sales volume was likely driven by buyers locking in the tax credit (before the extension was announced). Whether buyers remain in the market continues remains to be seen.

Median Price

The median sale price in November was $229,675. This is an indication of what SOLD, not a reflection of market values in general.

Days to Offer

The average days to offer in November was 92, down 8% from last year.

If you're a new reader, be sure to read the caveats to this analysis.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. As agents, we represent buyers and sellers. To learn more, call us at (720) 310-5007.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Months of Inventory: Boulder and Beyond

Industry experts frequently use "months of inventory" to describe market conditions, with 5 to 6 months being fairly typical of a healthy market.

The following chart shows months of inventory for Boulder real estate and surrounding areas. Using data from the last Silver Fern Report, the chart shows the 3 month average (red) and the latest month's data (green).

As you can see, Boulder saw a surprising drop in months of inventory in November, caused by a spike in sales and a seasonal drop in inventory. Attached dwellings in Boulder (town homes and condos) did not see a drop. Most other markets are at or near "healthy" levels of 5 to 6 months of inventory. Broomfield and Superior, clearly experiencing the Conoco Phillips Effect, have a much lower supply of homes.

Note: Most of the glut of inventory in Boulder is in luxury properties. With over two years of supply for $1MM+ homes, sellers have been dropping prices. If you're looking for a home in Boulder, call us. We can help you find the best deals in the market.

---
Silver Fern Homes can help you make a smarter real estate decision. To learn how, call us at 303.746.6896.
---
Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...

Sales Spike! [Boulder Market Update]

As published in the Silver Fern Report, here's a detailed analysis of Boulder real estate. The following charts show up to date market conditions for traditional houses (i.e., no condos or town homes).

The full report analyzes the market for Boulder's attached dwellings plus other local markets (i.e., Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont, Erie, and Superior). If you'd like a copy, sign up HERE.

Boulder Market Update

Inventory

Inventory of houses in Boulder is now at more normal levels after being substantially elevated over the summer. There were 392 homes on the market in November, down 19% from last month and up 6% from a year go.

As you can see in the chart above, inventory in Boulder is seasonal. It begins building in the January and generally peaks in early summer. It remains to be seen whether unsold inventory will return to market in the spring this year (likely).

Sales Volume

Sales volume showed a surprising jump in November. 59 homes sold, an increase of 64% from the previous month and up 119% from a year ago.

What caused the spike? It could be an increasing flow of positive economic news. Maybe it's the sense among buyers that real estate prices have finally hit bottom in Boulder. The primary driver was probably purchases by those seeking to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit. At the time these properties went under contract, it was uncertain whether the credit would be extended. Under the newly extended credits, qualified buyers now have until April 30 to place a property under contract and must close by June 30th.

In theory, the tax credit simply moved forward purchasing behavior. In other words, these buyers would have bought anyway, just a little later. If this is the case, and there is no other incentive for buyers to purchase, sales volume could slump back. Stay tuned...

Absorption


Absorption is a measure of market liquidity. October saw a spike, as to be expected when sales volume increases and inventory levels normalize. Note the historically low absorption levels this year, the bottom of which occurred in February.

Inventory vs Sales Volume

This is one of my favorite charts because at a glance you can see how the market is performing relative to "normal." The chart puts inventory and sales volume on the same axis (expressed as percent difference from the monthly average of the preceding four years).

As you can see, for the past year inventory has been high and sales volume low. That is, until last month - when sales volume suddenly spiked over 15% above the 4 year monthly average. In the financial markets, when a security breaks from a long established trend, it's usually perceived as a predictor of more changes in behavior. Will this be the same for Boulder's real estate market?

In my opinion, there's a good chance that more buyers will be in the market during the next few months, looking to snap up discounted property using exceptionally low rate mortgages. It's unclear whether this will be sustained and if rates remain low while the economy recovers, to what degree home prices will re-inflate.

Days to Offer

This chart shows average days to offer for sold property. In November it was 83 days, up 4% from last month and up 57% from the same period last month.

Note: Days to offer is subject to sellers who "refresh" their listings, so it has a certain degree of unreliability (thus, not my favorite chart). I include it because of popular demand. If you're a buyer considering the purchase of a particular home, be sure to obtain the true listing history of the property from your agent (if you need an agent, please consider Silver Fern Homes.)

Median Sale Price

The median sale price in November was 480,000, down 10% from last month and down 13% from the preceding year. Note: median sale price is an indicator of what sold in the month (lower priced property). It's not a measure of how property values have changed.

I hope you found this analysis of Boulder real estate to be useful. If you're thinking of buying or selling real estate and would like the advice of Realtors who know the market, consider Silver Fern Homes. We're a little different from other brokers because our mission is to act as your advisor, not a salesperson. We can provide you with information that will help you make a smarter decision. Contact us HERE.

Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Summary only...