Friday, December 09, 2016

Have A Swig of Fresh Listings + Market Update [Get 'Em Hot]



Is that cup spiked?
December might be one of the slowest months for real estate in Boulder, but don't drown in your eggnog just yet. There are still interesting homes available, and many sellers are preparing to list in the coming year. If you scratch around a little, you might even find hidden bargains from older listings, too (see Sold Listings of Note below).

Before we dive into this week's fresh listings, let's talk about market conditions.   
Market Update
123 houses are on the Boulder market, (68 available) and 50 houses sold during the past 30 days. Were you expecting a downturn? Surprise! It's not all that different from last December when 120 houses on the market (60 available) with 41 sales during the previous 30 days.  

So much for the slow down.


Condos are a somewhat different story. Right now, 103 are on the Boulder market (45 available) with 50 sales during the past 30 days. Compare that with mid-December last year when 62 were on market, with just 22 available, and 37 sales occurred during the preceding 30 days.  

Bottom line: For house buyers, conditions are pretty much the same as a year ago. For condos, selection is better, but there is still only about 2 months of inventory on market. The best ones will still go pretty fast. Poor choices and overpriced listings will sit around a while longer.  

If you want to buy property without overspending, choose your real estate adviser carefully. 


Fresh Listings
Ready to see some listings? If you’re shopping for real estate in Boulder, here’s what’s worth looking at this weekend.

Remember: To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation, price trends, intelligent real estate investing, national politics, and what you can buy Osman for Christmas - call 303.746.6896.


BOULDER


2065 Alpine | $1.55MM |Details
A beautifully updated ranch on a larger than typical lot in an "A" location. Certain lots on the little peninsula of Alpine, Balsalm, and Panorama have the best views in town. This isn't one of them. The inside loop doesn't have the view, but you're still easily walkable to downtown and Ideal Market. North/south orientation is a bonus.

The nice thing about these ranches is that the city doesn't care that much about post-war, mid-century modern construction and will probably let you permit anything you want (within compatible development, solar access, green points, height limits, residential code, and zoning regulations).  

I toured the home on behalf of clients before it hit the market. All finishes are high end, and the remodeling was well executed. Vaulted ceilings are awesome, and outdoor living areas are decent. It's worth a look. 

Due diligence: This neighborhood has recorded architectural restrictions, but they probably won't be an issue.  Just make sure your architect knows about them. You'll also be forever jealous of your neighbors $3MM+ houses.


1190 Berea |$715K | More Details
I've represented several buyers on this street in recent years. It's a quiet circle directly next to the park and rec center, with Boulder's best schools. The retail mix is great, with a new higher-end grocery (Lucky's) in walking distance and several attractive restaurants. Commuting from SoBo is far easier than North and Central Boulder. Open space access is a little further away, but the trails are just as nice as other parts of Boulder.  

As for the house itself, the kitchen was updated sometime recently, but the bathrooms are ready for a re-do. Then again, maybe gold trim will make a come-back.

Due diligence
:  Typical lot-size and east/west orientation design constraints.  Ask your agent to bring along his or her architect. What's that, they don't offer design consultations? Get a better Realtor.


3680 Buckeye Ct | $700K | More Details
Another dated ranch, this time with a full basement, located in North Central Boulder. It seems in decent condition, but the finishes will need a full update. Galley kitchens can be challenging if the goal is an open floor plan. 2 car garage is a plus. Typical size lot.   
Due diligence: See 1190 Berea above.



1140 Monroe Drive, Unit C | $419K | More Details
Condos in this location rent easily to more serious CU students and visiting/adjunct professors (not on the Hill, across from the research park).  The development is also on the bike path. Poorly insulated construction and open carports are typical turn-offs for prospective buyers, but it's a compromise worth considering given the location. "Worth considering" doesn't mean I recommend buying, by the way.

Investment due diligence: Rents have softened a little this winter in Boulder, so I would model $800 per bedroom max, which yields a pretty poor cap rate for this property. This one makes a better kiddie condo. I'd put mine in it, but lucky for me, he's not college material


Longmont



926 Neon Forest Cir | $845K | Details
This traditionally designed, elegant house is in the hippest neighborhood in Longmont. When first built, I admit I had doubts about Prospect, but any concerns evaporated long ago. Architecturally interesting with mature landscaping throughout the neighborhood, and just enough retail to keep in interesting. Main street Longmont also isn't too far out of reach. Get it before the Googlers figure out Prospect is only a 15-20 minute commute to the Googleplex (assuming construction on the Diagonal will ever be complete). 

411 Grant Street | $735K | More Details
Beautifully updated while retaining its historic charm, this 5 bedroom "bungalow" is in a great part of Old Town. The detached garage is icing on the cake. 

If you didn't know - Old Town is to Longmont what Mapleton Hill is to Boulder. At the pace Longmont is gentrifying, you might expect values to start to resemble it, too. The key is to get a livable house, with adequate storage, and with most of the remodeling done. This one checks a lot of boxes. 

Due diligence:  6th Ave is a little busy.  Although Longmont doesn't get nearly the late night traffic of Boulder, plan for several site visits at different times of day during the due diligence period to check for traffic related issues. Also look for typical pre-war house issues like knob and tube electrical, converted coal furnaces wrapped in asbestos, cobble-stone foundations, etc.

Louisville


2563 N. Franklin | $675K | More Details
Not far from downtown Louisville, a few updates, and open space access/views. Mid 70's vintage construction tri-level. There's not much on the market in Louisville, so don't miss out on seeing this one before it's under contract.

Due diligence
: Although the county owns the adjacent open space, ownership alone is not a guarantee that it won't ever be developed. If you're paying for the view, do your homework on the long-term intentions for the land and legal protections (conservation easements) that are in place to prevent development. If your agent shakes their head and says there's no risk, ask the residents of Twin Lakes.  Also note the train track proximity.




Sold Listings of Note



2395 Vassar Drive | $2.32MM | More Details
One of my buyers was on the edge of pulling the trigger on this beautiful gut, expand, and remodel. We eventually reached the conclusion that the kitchen was just too small and the fix would have potentially ruined the design. We bailed (and are still on the hunt). 

Market notes
: Turn-key contemporary homes like this are in short supply, and design/construction times are long in Boulder. This one sold for 2.5% below last asking, 5.3% below original asking. 2 months to get an acceptable offer, 4 months to close. 



175 Bellevue | $1.975MM | More Details
Wow, it finally sold. This late 60's trophy is on a killer perch. Someone scored a deal, but not at the lofty $2.5MM original asking price. Even with a massive 4.5 acres, the original asking price was steep. If they had priced it right from the start, they would have likely gotten more and not dealt with nearly a year on market.  Oy!

Lesson: Price it right for maximum value and minimal hassle, or be ready to chase the market and deal with a long listing period. A deep understanding of market conditions is the only way to maximize value.  Don't choose your Realtor based on the price they pitch. Choose a Realtor who really knows the market.


4585 13th Street, 1-C | $710K | More Details 
Condos at Uptown Broadway come in a variety of flavors and configurations: mixed-use units, some with epic views, loft-style studios, carriage homes over community garages, and more. Proper valuation (and negotiation) requires deep market knowledge of the differences between these units. 

Over time, I expect the location will continue to improve. This is the only Boulder neighborhood with a distinct development plan, one which will eventually wipe out the ugly commercial/industrial properties on the west side of Broadway. 

This particular sale is a good comp for a larger mixed use style unit.   

Due diligence: The HOA allows the mixed-use units to be rented separate from the residence upstairs.  Taxes are typically based on residential use (i.e. lower than commercial). I own an investment property here, and it's been a terrific performer.  Financing is likely through a portfolio lender (Fannie and Freddie don't like mixed-use units.  They are not warrantable). 



To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.  image credit: Justin Young

Friday, December 02, 2016

Badass Rooter Guy

by Osman Parvez
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Destry at TeeGee Rooter
If you've ever wondered... this is what a badass rooter guy looks like.  

Last week, I bought another investment property in Boulder.  On my lengthy to-do list was to have the roots in the sewer line cleaned out. 

When I called to schedule, I learned my usual rooter guy had moved on to other things. So, I did what most people would do.  I tried the discounter. 

Bigly mistake.  

They showed up, made a mess, and after 30 minutes, claimed they couldn't get through. There was a lot of hand waving and head shaking. Eventually, they gave up and hauled their equipment back up my steps, leaving marks and banging dents into each riser along the way.   

"Something is seriously wrong with your sewer line," the tech said as he took my money.  "Good luck."   

"Uh... OK," I said, relieved that they were leaving. 

Issues with residential sewer lines can be pricey. Seriously pricey. Worried, I called up Jeff Anderson, my trusted line repair guy. He said I should try another company. He recommended Tee Gee Rooter.  

"If anybody knows how to properly clean out a residential sewer line, it's Destry,"he said. He even referred to him as "a badass."   

A badass. I had no idea what that meant, but it sure sounded good. I called and scheduled.  A few hours later, Destry showed up. He was careful and conscientious about his work. He cleaned up after himself. Within 20 minutes, the line was cleared, the equipment was hauled carefully back out of the house, and I had peace of mind.  Apparently, that's what it takes to be a badass rooter guy. 

Phew! 

Remember:  When it doubt, always go with the trusted referral. As Momma used to say, "you get what you pay for."  

Destry, if you're reading this - thank you. Looks like I have a new rooter guy. 

Note: All of our referrals are based on service quality and value. We do not accept fees for recommending lenders, tradespeople, or products. Unlike William Shatner, we do not make paid endorsements. Unlike Re/Max and Coldwell Banker, we do not have affiliated lenders, title companies, or insurance companies. When it comes to fees and compensation, we practice complete disclosure and transparency. We also have a one strike out policy for our referrals.

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Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
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As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Thursday, December 01, 2016

To Scrape, or Not to Scrape. That is the Question

by Osman Parvez
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The Grape Street Curse Strikes Again
Earlier this week, I dropped everything and sprinted to see a new listing for one of my relocation buyers. My client is looking for a property that will be a good project to renovate. Adding square footage is expected. They're on the prowl for a home with so called good bones (with or without a basement) in North Boulder. 

This particular property in north central Boulder checked a lot of boxes:  

- Larger than typical lot, allowing more flexibility for expansion
- South facing (better for passive and active solar, plus smaller solar shadows)  
- Low traffic street 
- Well maintained but otherwise unimproved (why pay for renovations that you will gut)
- Mid 1950's construction (which the city is not yet making efforts to preserve)

Unfortunately, the back half of the lot was in the moderate risk flood plain. But by itself, that wasn't the deal killer.  The deal killer were the power lines. 

This particular house not only has the usual backyard distribution lines, it also has the Grape Street Curse: massive towers with looming transmission lines overhead. To make matters worse, a distribution branch for a perpendicular street ran directly next to the house.  In other words, the house was penned in by power lines. 

Distribution branch directly adjacent to the house
Unsightly transmission lines do more than ruin the backyard views and create challenges for expansion, buyers are increasingly concerned with health risks of Electrical and Magnetic Fields (EMF). With my science background, I know that on the scale of things, EMF is a much lower concern than other hazards like mold, lead based paint, and asbestos. The science is not particularly alarming, but if EMF goes the way of other environmental risks, awareness and concern will likely increase. Even if you could stomach the visual impact, the future health impact (real or perceived) should scare you away. Remember, location is one of the only things you can't change. 

Note:  Obviously, this one won't work for my clients.  If you happen to know of a house that might and is not yet on market, please reach out to me. 

Due diligence tips: 
- Flood maps, current and proposed
- Electrical distribution and transmission lines
- Compatible Development regulations


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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Friday, November 11, 2016

Views, Lock and Leave Boulder Eye Candy [Fresh Listings, Get 'Em Hot]


And we're back! 

If you’re shopping for real estate in Boulder, here’s what’s worth seeing.

Remember: To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.


Sold Listings of Note


1002 Mapleton Ave | $7.75MM | More Details
You have to wonder about the negotiation backstory of this iconic Boulder house. It hit the market in July at $8.4 and immediately under contract.  And then nothing, for months. It finally closed at a 7.2%. Curious.

Spectacular house in a premier location. Click the link for the real estate eye candy. 

p.s. I often park in the District and walk to my favorite coffee shop when I want a change in work scenery.  It's truly a special location.


920 10th Street | $1.29MM | More DetailsThe location of this house is hit or miss due to high student density, but the lack of a garage is what killed it for my buyers. Sure, the cottage rental income is nice but when you're at this price point, you don't care as much about the rental income. The cottage would more likely be used as a guest room or home office. Click the link above for photos of what a nicely updated house on the Hill should look like.  

Deal notes:  It was on the market for over a month before going under contract.  Sold for 4.4% below asking. 

3971 Montclair Lane | $918K | More Details
I'm tracking Fourmile closely for a prospective client who will be listing their home in January or February. This one illustrates the risk of overpricing and chasing the market down.  Originally listed in July for $978K, cut the price in August (too late) to $955K, and finally sold for $918K at the end of October. 

Pro tip:  Don't be tempted to choose your listing agent based on the high price they toss out during the listing presentation. It's a lure. Pricing is the single most important component of a successful marketing plan. It takes a deep understanding of market conditions for optimal pricing, which includes a thorough analysis of recent sold homes and active competitors. There is no shortcut to achieve maximum value for the seller.  You have to do the work. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you something. 

1455 Ithaca | $682K | More Details
A fairly typical small tri-level in Table Mesa with a one car garage and mostly dated finishes. Slightly smaller than typical size lot and less than optimal east facing. It's a good one to note for tracking valuations in Table Mesa. They didn't overshoot on price, it's the other compromises that caused it to sit on market for 3 months before finding a buyer.  It sold for a slightly discount (2.5% below asking).   


To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.

Interesting Price Reductions 

948 North Unit #13 | $366K | More Details
For a long term income investor, this should be a no-brainer at the now reduced price of $366K. The building is admittedly odd; a brick faced commercial building on the front with residences at the back. The layout of this particular unit is conducive for roommates and you get elevator access, critical for attracting a diversity of potential tenants. HOA fees are reasonable for downtown. Perhaps the deal killer for many buyers has been the lack of conventional (warrantable) financing from Fanny and Freddie.  Instead, you need to go to a portfolio lender (like Elevations or Firstbank) who usually offer shorter terms and adjustable rate products, which of course, carry interest rate risk. Personally, I'd be more worried about the City's redevelopment of BCH but for an income investor, you can also argue that more fancy city offices are good news. City employees have excellent recession-resistant job security - i.e. great tenants.  I'd write an offer for my personal portfolio if I didn't already have an investment property under contract.

Fresh Listings


BOULDER


885 Rain Lilly Lane | $1,65MM | More Details 
The bones better be good because a tiny lot means forget about expanding beyond the existing footprint. The interior could use some cosmetic refreshing, but the layout is excellent for a majority of buyers and the location appears to have a protected view to Wonderland Lake, open space, and the Foothills. The design appears to be conducive for entertaining, with good flow to outdoor living areas.  Asking seems steep, but if the view is truly protected, it won't last long on market.

p.s. The tiny lot also means less landscaping to maintain.


To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896


429 Concord Ave | $1.3MM | More Details
The sellers must have taken a tenant last year when they listed this during the winter and then quickly took it off the market. Now it's back with (surprise!) the same asking price. Overall, it's a smaller home with a classic design in a prime location in the Historic District. Small is beautiful. If you're downsizing, go see it. Call your Realtor.

To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.

4555 13th Street, Unit 2D | $695K | More DetailsUptown Broadway is a North Boulder neighborhood with easy trail access, great restaurants, and excellent public transit to downtown. These condos are nicely finished, turn-key, lock and leave living for buyers who want a low maintenance property and don't care to live near noisy students. The neighborhood and development has excellent long term investment potential. Full disclosure:  I own property in Uptown and plan to open an office for Realty Unique there sometime this summer.  I'm bullish on Uptown.


205 Sundown Lane Unit #212 | $420K | More Details
Frankly, this unit is pricey given the competition from new build student

housing. Your prospective tenants will look at brand new alternatives on the Frontage Road at $1000/bed, all inclusive where they get to live with more of their buddies. I would model this to rent at closer to $800/bed, which isn't a phenomenal cap rate. Then again, it should rarely be vacant given the location and continually expanding CU student body.  No Fanny or Freddie, the complex is well over 50% investor owned (which should tell you something).    Due diligence:  Fire history, capital assessments

LAFAYETTE
102 W Chester St | $535K | More Details
Downtown, historic, affordable, on a gigantic lot.  If you buy the thesis that the L's will keep attracting buyers because expected long term population growth in Colorado, you might want to snap this up. The exterior isn't remarkable now but it has potential (repaint) for better curb appeal. Light a match to the the interior, it needs a complete refresh.

p.s. This one is for Lindsey, who says I never write about Lafayette.

Due diligence:
 Make sure your Realtor and home inspector have experience with historic homes.  Maintenance and repairs can be 2x to 3X a more modern home. All that charm has a price.



NIWOT
7232 Lacey Ct | $1.1MM | More Details
When buyers ask me about Niwot, we have a candid discussion about what happened during the last downturn when over 2 years of luxury inventory piled up. Giant homes on giant lots appeal to a limited audience; well heeled, large families who need the space. Many buyers today prefer something smaller and less ostentatious. 

On the flip side - Niwot has experienced a resurgence with awesome new restaurants and pubs. The historic downtown area regularly hosts community events and it has become a vibrant community of its own, not just a bedroom for Boulder. If you're concerned with capital presevation, you should be highly selective and aim more towards the entry level of the luxury market This one qualifies and appears to be in excellent condition.  Worth a look.  Call your Realtor


LONGMONT 


9750 N. 75th | $1.45MM | More Details
Bare dirt for 10 lots, zoned for duplexes. There aren't many developable spots left close to Boulder.  This one is on the prime cycling route and an easy drive to the Google Plex. Plus Whole Foods is opening nearby. The real question: why is Markel selling it? My guess is that they're focused on other (bigger) projects or they're still burned from the last downturn.  Still, it's an interesting opportunity for a small to medium size builder/developer with a tolerance for risk.  Contact me for a full analysis of the investment potential including a discussion of potential deal structures for investors. 

7388 Glacier View Rd | $580K | More Details
If you buy this house, your address might say Longmont, but you're really in Gunbarrel and in mostly high performing Niwot Schools.  A great family neighborhood with nearby trail access and of course, Avery.  Quick drive to Boulder and Google.


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As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.
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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.  image credit: Justin Young

Monday, October 17, 2016

Sabbaticals Aren't Just for Academics

by Osman Parvez
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You may have noticed blog posts here on House Einstein have slowed recently. Although I help people buy and sell homes all year round, the industry is seasonal. Autumn and early winter are usually the slowest time of year. I've been taking advantage of the lull with motorcycle rides through the backcountry and trips to visit my family and friends.   

There is a time for intense, focused work and there's a time to take stock and reflect. In my happy place, my closest friends are sitting around a campfire, beneath a blanket of stars. We're telling stories about the adventures we've shared and engaging in deep conversations regarding the big questions; how to live well and how to do good work.   




Edward Abbey once wrote: 

“One final paragraph of advice: do not burn yourselves out. Be as I am - a reluctant enthusiast....a part-time crusader, a half-hearted fanatic. Save the other half of yourselves and your lives for pleasure and adventure. It is not enough to fight for the land; it is even more important to enjoy it. While you can. While it’s still here. So get out there and hunt and fish and mess around with your friends, ramble out yonder and explore the forests, climb the mountains, bag the peaks, run the rivers, breathe deep of that yet sweet and lucid air, sit quietly for a while and contemplate the precious stillness, the lovely, mysterious, and awesome space. Enjoy yourselves, keep your brain in your head and your head firmly attached to the body, the body active and alive, and I promise you this much; I promise you this one sweet victory over our enemies, over those desk-bound men and women with their hearts in a safe deposit box, and their eyes hypnotized by desk calculators. I promise you this; You will outlive the bastards.” 

This is why I live here.



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Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

The Coming Boulder Market Turn [Analyze This]

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My recent blog posts have emphasized end-of-season bargains that are now on the Boulder market (courtesy of overzealous sellers and brokers who use wishful thinking prices to attract clients). I've already helped several clients negotiate exceptional deals in the 4th Quarter by targeting stale, overpriced listings. I'm currently on the hunt for others (including investments for my own portfolio).

What about next year? Should you keep your powder dry and hope for a correction? Should you sell now before the downturn begins?

The answer depends on the characteristics of the property (price, location, property type) and your personal investment objectives, including your tolerance for risk/return. Real estate is seasonal and cyclical. It's also very local.  

In Boulder, the last market correction began in '06 and reached bottom in '09. Fueled by "can you fog a mirror?" underwriting and cheap rates, the collapse was especially brutal in bubble markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami. Some would like you to believe that Boulder was immune. I've even heard a few brokers say "Boulder real estate never goes down" but that's simply not the case.  

During the last downturn, Boulder experienced a top down market correction. Sales at the high end slowed and inventory expanded past a 2 year supply, briefly pushing prices down by 40% in some segments (including downtown Boulder). Adjacent luxury markets like Niwot saw inventory reach nearly a 3 year supply. Meanwhile, the entry level held strong. It didn't correct until the very end of the cycle, a small period of roughly only a few months during early 2009, and prices barely dipped (about 5%). In the rear view mirror, those were buying opportunities but at the time, nearly everyone was playing it safe.

In my crystal ball, the next cyclical turn will be far less severe. For one thing, banks no longer issue liar loans and buyers in markets like Boulder are almost always putting down +20% or paying cash. Boulder buyers have a lot of skin in the game and tremendous ability to wait out downturns. To point, during the last downturn, Boulder County had one of the lowest foreclosure rates in the country and the City of Boulder had only a handful. When the market turns, Boulder is likely to skip sideways.

Primary home markets are closely tied to employment, mortgage rates, and overall economic conditions but Boulder also benefits from reliable employers like recession-proof CU and the federal labs. Assuming City Council doesn't screw up the Boulder brand, our quality of life will likely continue to draw a nearly endless line of well heeled buyers from all over the world. 

Whether you pull the trigger now or hold off until next year depends on your answer to the first questions I ask new clients: What are your investment objectives? We then develop a strategy for how to finance your plan, maximize return and manage risk relative to your specific situation. It might make sense to focus on select locations and asset types in growth markets like Longmont. Maybe it would be better to buy the blue chip of Boulder real estate assets; the entry level in prime Boulder locations. It could be time to sell or I might just convince you to hold off, as I did with several potential sellers this past year. As one of my finance professors liked to say back in the day, "the answer depends."
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Additional Resources: This morning, Manish Singh, head of investments at Crossbridge Capital, was on Bloomberg discussing possible monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and how it may impact U.S. economic growth. His views are noteworthy for their reasonableness and rationality, especially on the laughable idea of multiple rate hikes coming next year. 






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Ready to discuss your real estate strategy?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 


You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Monday, October 10, 2016

Louisville Market Update [Analyze This]

by Osman Parvez
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As you can see from the chart above, the market is slowing in line with the normal seasonal cycle. 60 houses are on the market in Louisville, up about 20% from last year. Most of the increase is due to new construction in Markel's North End. About half of Louisville's inventory is currently under contract, which translates to 2 months of supply. 6 months is what many analysts consider a "balanced market." The pace of sales is what you'd expect, as 24 properties closed in the last 30 days, up slightly from last year.  

Note: About 2/3 of the available (not under contract) inventory has aged over 30 days. Some of these properties are attractive and deserve greater scrutiny. As I've mentioned in recent blog posts, this is bargain season. Aggressive buyers should look at listings that have been on the market for several weeks (or months) without an offer and also observe where the owners have significant equity. If your real estate agent thinks you should never offer below asking, find a better Realtor

The key to intelligent real estate decisions is a deep understanding of market conditions. 

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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Boulder Real Estate Enters Autumn Strong (But It's Still Bargain Season).

by Osman Parvez
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Are you ready for another update on real estate conditions in Boulder? Let's take a look at inventory. 



The chart above shows total inventory for stand alone houses (blue) and attached dwellings (red) within the City of Boulder. The typical seasonal pattern is present, with inventory having reached its peak towards the end of summer. Total inventory trended slightly higher for houses this year and somewhat lower for condos and townhomes. 




This chart shows the breakdown between available houses (dark blue) and those under contract (light blue). Although a fair portion of under contract deals terminate and return to the market, the vast majority get to the closing table. The relationship between under contract and available switches towards the end of the fourth quarter while inventory is still high enough to provide ample selection. This is why this is the best time of year for buyers to negotiate, even when it's a sellers market. 





This chart shows the breakdown between available attached dwellings (dark red) and those under contract (light red). Note that for the past two years, there are far more under contract properties than available ones. This is one of the reasons I've been encouraging my condo sellers to be more aggressive when it comes to negotiation. My condo buyers get the data that helps them understand when to submit stronger offers.   

It's worth noting that the trend lines converged this month, something that didn't happen last year.  Perhaps it's a signal of the market somewhat softening. Even so, the message remains the same. The optimal strategy is opportunistic. If you're a buyer, keep looking and consider moving up your target price range. There are a number of overpriced listings on the market, some with large equity positions. These sellers might be worth tempting with a low offer + a fast closing.

For new sellers, caution is warranted. My recommendation is to market the property professionally but price aggressively, and don't push the comps too far or you'll be on market for 6 months or longer. At this time of year, it's far better to price right (i.e. to market) to create buzz and drive a bidding war to a fast sale with few contingencies. Listings that have been on the market for a significant period of time do not have the critical momentum and air of exclusivity to drive the price higher. In other words, you only have one shot to market your home for its maximum value. Choose your Realtor carefully. 


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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Boulder Real Estate Bargain Shopping? The Time is Now [Inventory Analysis]

by Osman Parvez
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I just completed my inventory update for the week. The Boulder real estate market is doing interesting things, but there were no big surprises. Let's look at the data. 

Note: The analysis below is for detached houses in the City of Boulder. If you're looking for an analysis of market conditions for condos or townhomes, call me. If you want to see market conditions for specific properties or neighborhoods in Longmont, Lafayette, Niwot, Superior, or other areas in Boulder - again, call me. Contact information is at the bottom of the post. 




The orange line in the chart above represents houses that are under contract (both pending and active/backup status). The blue line shows houses that are available. The series goes back to June 1st, 2015 and continues to today, September 14th, 2016.

As a rule, real estate markets are both seasonal and cyclical. Boulder is no exception to the rule. Current inventory stands at 194 properties, down about 11% from last year at this time. From March through about mid June, the market is most favorable to sellers with far more buyers than available homes. Beginning in July, the market flips back. 





In this next chart (above), I've added red arrows so you can see it more clearly.

When I represent sellers, my goal is to maximize price and speed of sale while minimizing potential seller liability and risk of the deal falling apart. The pattern in the chart above repeats year after year (i.e. it's seasonal), which is why I always strongly recommend sellers list in March and do everything possible to have closed by the end of June. It's not that you can't sell at any time of year. You can. All things being the same, you'll get a higher price and bear fewer risks if you optimize your timing. Just be sure to choose a Realtor who knows what they're doing and loves the art of negotiation.

When I represent buyers, my goals are to provide honest advice on property selection and once we've found the right house, negotiate the best deal possible. I also provide guidance for complete and thorough due diligence. 

The mid 3rd and early 4th quarter have always provided the best opportunities for buyers because there are always sellers who misjudged the market (usually based on the advice of a bad Realtor) and are now desperate. This is one of the reasons I've highlighted big price reductions in my weekly posts on fresh listings but if you're serious about getting a deal, don't wait for the price reduction. As I told a client last night, it's far better to go after the listing before the seller agrees to a large drop and publishes the new price. You're not the only bargain shopper in the market. 




This last chart simplifies the inventory analysis even further. The black line represents the percentage of inventory under contract. Typically, the bottom occurs at the beginning of the 4th quarter, precisely the time that many sellers who blew the summer season are hating their life and willing to capitulate. 

Guess what time of year it is? If you're buying, let's find you a deal. The time is now.  

If you're considering selling, let's get a strategy in place to maximize the sale price. If you can hold out, you should wait for the spring but keep in mind that we're nearing the end of a cycle and it's an election year to boot. There is risk in waiting that may offset the benefit of timing it for the season. Call me for a consultation on how I can professionally market your home for the highest potential sale price.

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-> Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 


-> Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       

- >You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.  We also recently launched an instagram featuring Justin Beiber in the closet

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.