Time for an update on the Boulder real estate market. The following charts were published in the
Silver Fern Report, an analysis of market trends in Boulder and surrounding areas.
We put this report together each month to help our clients better understand market trends and make smarter real estate decisions. If you'd like expert advice on real estate in Boulder, give us a call at 303.746.6896.
Let's go to the analysis...
Sales Volume
The chart above shows sales volume for traditional houses in the City of Boulder. Sales volume is very seasonal in Boulder, typically peaking in June. Only 36 houses sold this past October, a record low (yellow). Despite the thin volume, the seasonal pattern has been fairly typical for this time of year. There was no tax credit driven spike, unlike other markets. Sales volume was down 36% from October of last year.
Over the last twelve and six months, sales volume is down 33% and 25%, respectively.
Inventory
Inventory also follows a sharp seasonal pattern. There were 485 properties on the market in October (yellow), down 17% from the year before. After this Summer's spike in inventory, it's nice to see the level drop. I suspect inventory will rise again next year as many unsuccessful sellers re-list their properties in the Spring.
Sales to Inventory (Absorption)
Absorption continued at record lows in October (yellow). Unlike the previous years shown, absorption this year has been far less volatile. This suggests a floor to how far the market has fallen in Boulder.
The absorption rate in October was only 7.1%. The average for October over the preceding four years was 15.1%.
Current Conditions Compared to Average
This chart looks at inventory and sales volume, comparing the latest data with the average of the four preceding years. The chart is adjusted for seasonality and allows you to see how the market is doing relative to the average. The white bars represent inventory - it's been running high over the past twelve months but is down from the peak over the summer. In October, inventory was 17% above the four year average.
Sales volume is represented by the green bars and has been running very low. From February through September, there appeared to be an improving trend, but October was 45% worse than the four year average, setting us back once again.
Median Sale Price
Median sale price gives a glimpse of what has been selling. Movements doesn't mean that house values have risen or fallen, just what price point is the median. With that said, prices have clearly been falling at the top and even middle of the market. The only segment that has not seen a substantial decline in prices is the entry level of Boulder's market.
In October, the median sale price was $533,000.
Average Days on Market
Days to offer (DTO) is the period from when a property is first placed on the MLS to when it receives an accepted contract. As a statistic, it's somewhat unreliable because unsuccessful sellers will pull their listings from the market and then re-list at a later date. True days on market can be looked up for each individual property. Your agent should do this before you write an offer.
In October, DTO was 80. This is up 25% from last October and down 14% from September.
Withdrawn and Expired Listings
This last chart shows withdrawn and expired listings in the City of Boulder. It shows August through October (three months) from 2004 to 2009. You can think of these listings as a measure of seller frustration. This year, there were 246 listings - a record, and up 26% from 2008.
Conclusions?
The Boulder market has been very fortunate. For a
very long list of reasons, people love living here. Even during a deep recession, a steady number of people relocate to Boulder each year. The demographics of our mobile society means this should continue.
We missed the real estate bubble, but the silver lining was that we didn't see the bottom drop out of our market. Former bubble markets saw inventory levels rise 10x or more as speculators dumped their holdings and fled. Prices in the bubbles dropped 40% or more and have only recently begun stabilizing. We didn't experience any of that.
But today we are experiencing a serious slump. Inventory remains relatively high and prices have fallen for the mid and high end of the market. Consequently, buyers are getting very good deals. Sellers have to be doubly careful in how they market and price their listings. It's far better to lead the market than follow it down.
I believe several years down the road, today will look like a buying opportunity, much like it did 20+ years ago when the Boulder market experienced its last true slump. Those that dared to wade in and hold have done very well, even after the recent drop in prices. For buyers, rates are low, incentives are available, and high inventory means more options.
Not everyone is getting a great deal, however. The key is choosing an agent who thinks and acts like an advisor, not as a salesperson. That's where we come in at Silver Fern Homes. By carefully evaluating the market and negotiating aggressively, we've been able to get our clients truly exceptional deals on Boulder real estate.
We'd like to extend you an invitation to have a conversation with us. There's no obligation and never any pressure. If you're thinking about buying or selling real estate in Boulder, call us at 303.746.6896.
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Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to market uncertainties. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.
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