Thursday, April 27, 2017

Sales in Bear Creek [Analyze This]

by Osman Parvez

It's a rainy day in Boulder, a good time for analysis. 

One of the most important pieces of advice we give our clients, both sellers and buyers, is how to understand market conditions for their unique property (or property search criteria). Location is the starting point for the conversation. If you don't know the history of recent sales in the neighborhood, you're going in blind. 

Take a look at the table below. 



You're looking at sales since the beginning of the year for properties within the Bear Creek Elementary footprint.  Why Bear Creek?   Because its one of the highest performing elementary schools in the state when it comes to standardized testing. Homes in Bear Creek are in high demand.  There's also notoriously low inventory - only four homes are currently on the market

The chart is sorted by date of sale. The number of bedrooms and baths are indicated, as well as the total square footage of the property. The type of funding used is shown (cash and a fast closing is a competitive advantage). 

Some observations: 

- There were some early season discounts. Nearly everything that has sold since March has been for asking or higher.    

- Cash is not always king. 1616 Bradley sold for the highest premium, 6.1% over asking. It was a cash deal. 

- The largest discount was for nearly 9% below asking, also cash. Take a look at the listing for 342 Hollyberry and you'll know why. The house was marketed as land, a scrape-off with no interior photos, no floor plans, not even an ILC available for download.  The old listing from 2005 was more informative and at least showed the backyard overlooking open space. The seller grossed $131K over her holding period, before fees, or 1.4% IRR.  Almost certainly a loss in real terms. Show that to your broker the next time they tell you that Boulder real estate only goes up.  Or better yet, find a better Realtor.

note: As anyone who has taken a stats course knows, small sample sizes lead to trouble (i.e. not statistically significant).  Many buyers in Table Mesa would also consider Mesa Elementary schools. 
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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

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