Thursday, October 08, 2015

Market Forecast: Turbulence Ahead

by Osman Parvez
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Heads up Boulder real estate buyers and sellers. Market indicators are pointing to changes ahead.

As of the beginning of this month, inventory was down 6.5% and homes under contract had risen from 40.3% to 46.8% compared to the previous year. In other words, there are slightly fewer homes for sale and slightly more competition between buyers than last year at this time.    

Here's the real story - what you won't find anywhere else. Check out the following chart. 




The chart above shows change in sales volume (year over year) for houses in the City of Boulder during the last twelve months (LTM), last six months (L6M), and last three months (L3M).    

During the last 3 months, sales volume fell 15% compared to the same period a year ago. This is not a small dip. Volume dropped about 4% for the 6 and 12 month periods.   

With rates widely expected to rise before the end of the year and increasing signs of global economic uncertainty, it's a good bet that the market will soon begin to see more inventory. 


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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

2 comments:

  1. It's hard to interpret this without knowing what inventory is doing. Is the decline in sales volume for the last 3 months due to slowing sales compared to last year, or a similar percentage of sales with less inventory? Looking through your posts, you compare peak inventory in http://boulderrealty.blogspot.com/2015/06/have-we-reached-peak-of-selling-season.html. You show peak inventory is down 15% from 2014, the same as the decline in L3M sales. Does this change your projection for the future?

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  2. 2nd paragraph in this blog post answers your question. Inventory is only slightly lower and % under contract is only slightly higher. The 15% drop over the last three months is a year over year comparison, apples to apples. It's a substantial drop in sales volume and a potential leading indicator of a market shift.

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