Wednesday, August 12, 2015

The Market Signals a Downturn [The Wayback Machine]

by Osman Parvez
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Here's one from the wayback machine: Fresh on the Market.   

Back in the early spring of 2007, the Boulder real estate market signaled the beginning of a downturn. Too bad wishful thinking and happy talk can't beat Mr. Market.  

One key indicator was the spike in refreshed, withdrawn, and expired listings. The analysis (Read: Fresh on the Market) looked at changes in sales activity for the same period (November to January) for three consecutive years. On the surface, sales volume was the same. Lurking beneath that data? A telltale indicator of a market about to spiral downward.


Little did we know that this was the beginning of a 3 year down period for Boulder real estate and a huge opportunity for buyers. Hindsight is always 20/20.

The takeaway points remain the same. Carefully research the history of the property before writing an offer. A track record of poor performance during strong market cycles (2002-2006) is a red flag. It's possible that (a) the listing agent did a poor job but it might also be that (b) you're about to buy a lemon. A savvy buyer's agent can help you tell the difference.

Note: The summer season is wrapping up. During the 3rd and 4th quarter, we are focused on bringing back the full research archive dating back to 2005. This involves careful editing to remove references to my previous company.   


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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

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