Wednesday, August 05, 2015

Sorry Sellers, Boulder Inventory Under Contract PLUNGES [Analyze This]

by Osman Parvez
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Psst... want to know a secret? 

The Boulder real estate market has finally started swinging back towards buyers. If your Realtor tells you differently, get a better Realtor.   

As usual, no happy talk or hand waving. Let's look at the charts.

Remember, intelligent real estate decisions are based on a deep understanding of the market. If you're serious about buying or selling real estate in Boulder, call us for a detailed analysis of market conditions tailored to your specific real estate situation. Don't rely on a 30,000 foot analysis to determine your strategy, not even this one.    
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The graph above shows inventory in Boulder from June 1st through August 5th, broken down between available houses and those under contract with a buyer. The first week in July marked the real transition point, where available inventory (blue) finally exceeded under contract inventory (orange). Then at the end of July, a sharp plunge occurred for houses under contract.    





Here's another way of looking at the data. The blue line above is the percentage of current inventory under contract, also known as absorption. It peaked in late May with 57% of inventory under contract and has been declining since. As of this writing 41% of houses in Boulder are under contract. 

Buyers - you now have more selection and less pressure from competitors. As always, the degree to which the market has shifted depends on price range and location, but it's generally true across the board. The sub $500K mark in neighborhoods like Martin Acres and Baseline remains the hottest spot, with very little inventory and intense buyer demand. Other neighborhoods and higher price ranges have more selection and less demand. Base your negotiation strategy on market conditions relative to your specific target property.   

Sellers - do not wait to list your home. The peak of this summer's selling season is over, but there are still many buyers still in the Boulder real estate market. Be extremely cautious in pricing and marketing. We've seen many recent listings take huge price reductions because the owner or (inexperienced listing agent) wanted to test the market.   If it isn't getting an offer within the first three weeks, buyers want to know what's wrong with it. Usually the answer is that the seller was (a) greedy or (b) didn't properly prepare the home for sale or (c) it wasn't professionally marketed. Sometimes it's all three. 
   
Please note: this analysis is for houses only, not condos, town homes, or multi-family properties. It's also for the City of Boulder (proper), not Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont, or Superior. Not Gunbarrel.    



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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.    image:  ElizaC3

2 comments:

  1. Great info. Do you think the increased inventory has anything to do with fewer cash buyers/investors in the market? The early summer frenzy is cooled off and now sellers are sitting wondering if they missed the boat. Thanks for sharing.

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  2. I think it's largely just the annual seasonal swing, not a change (yet) in the cycle. It's possible fewer cash buyers are out there as well, but I don't have the data to support that argument.

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