Wednesday, May 13, 2015

The Incredible Shrinking Louisville Real Estate Market [Market Update]

by Osman Parvez
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Smart real estate decisions are based on accurate and timely market information. Don't have it?  You're negotiating blind. 

We've been closely tracking the real estate market in Louisville, CO for the past twelve years.  Some of our data analysis goes back nearly 20 years, including a regression analysis showing appreciation rates.



Here's our latest analysis: 




As of this writing, total inventory in Louisville stands at 50 houses, less than half the long term average for the month of May. Inventory continues to grow in more or less the normal seasonal pattern. If the pattern holds, it will peak in late June or mid July.    

While total inventory is growing, the number of available homes is actually shrinking (blue line). This is indicative of an incredibly competitive sellers market with attractive listings being snapped up within days of hitting the MLS. It's also bad news if you're shopping for a home in Louisville. Expect greater levels of competition and more fiercely contested bidding wars. Having a savvy buyer's agent with proven negotiation skills helps. 




The chart above shows the Colorado Association of Realtor's latest data on sales in Louisville. It's old data. It also doesn't match up with past releases from other data sources. For understanding the market, making a smarter real estate decision, and for guidance in negotiation, it's next to useless. 

Here's the real skinny. 68 single family house sales have occurred in Louisville, year to date. 29% sold for more than asking. 96% of the buyers had their own agents (i.e. the listing agent did not "double end"). That's right, when an agent desperate for your business suggests they've got the inside track on listings, don't believe the hype. It's a rarity - even in this inventory deprived market. 

As always, we save the best for our clients. We'll publish a more actionable analysis on recent sale prices, including the average premium paid over asking for homes that received a premium, as well as and other key negotiation metrics in our upcoming research report.   Sign up below.   

If you're a client, don't wait for the research analysis to be published. Call us to discuss the market relative to your specific real estate objectives. Market conditions vary enormously by price range, location, property type, and even layout.  

Our Business at Realty Unique
About a third of buyers start their home search in the city of Boulder and end up purchasing in "the L's" (Louisville, Lafayette, and Longmont). No matter the price range, buying real estate is a matter of understanding trade-offs. Our goal is to help you make a smarter real estate decision. 

Occasionally we are asked to represent clients in other markets such as Denver, Colorado Springs, and the mountain towns. We're honored by these requests. If we have a pre-existing relationship with you and feel we can adequately represent your interests, we will consider these transactions but in the vast majority of cases, we refer the business to trusted colleagues.   

Remember, intelligent real estate decisions depend on accurate, actionable market information. There is no substitute, no amount of happy talk and hand waving that makes up for it.   



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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.   image: lending memo

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