Thursday, October 03, 2013

Boulder Pending Sales Analysis [Market Update]

by Osman Parvez

It's early October.  After a scorching hot summer and the horrific flooding in September, you'd think the market would dramatically slow.   

Guess again. 

My latest analysis shows that pending home sales in the City of Boulder are continuing at a surprisingly strong rate.  Although the full impact of September's floods have yet to be felt, the Boulder real estate market appears to have shrugged off rising rates.   

Yes, things has cooled slightly, but far less than I would have expected for this time of year.   In other words, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the market remains very strong. 

Take a look at the following charts.

Boulder Pending Home Sales 



Over the summer, absorption ranged from 31% to 34%.   As of this writing, 228 houses are available for sale in the City of Boulder.   33% are under contract.  

Preliminary sales numbers for September indicate at least 60 closings during September, up 9% from last year.  




How about attached dwellings?    Over the summer, absorption ranged from 34% to 42%.   Inventory currently shows 196 town homes and condos currently for sale.   32% are under contract with a buyer.   

Preliminary numbers show at least 63 attached dwellings closed during September, up 34% from last year.  

Conclusions
The Boulder real estate market has cooled slightly from this summer's frenzied pace, but far less than I would have expected.   Flooding has likely damaged a portion of pending sales, most of which I suspect will still close after repairs have been completed.  After all, we're still experiencing an inventory shortage.   
Expect some percentage of pending closings will extend well past the typical 30-40 days.  This will push against their rate locks but some buyers will at least get a remodeled basement.  Not a bad deal. 

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