Monday, October 21, 2013

A Detailed Analysis of Real Estate in Louisville, CO [Market Update]

by Osman Parvez

Think the Boulder real estate market is intense?   Check out Louisville. 

Note:  This analysis is an overview of market conditions in Louisville, CO.  If you're buying or selling, it's important to understand the market relative to your specific price range, property type, and location.   Make a smarter real estate decision.  Call me to schedule a confidential discussion on your unique situation.  ph: 303.746.6896


My previous analysis was in March.  Here's an update. 

Louisville continues to experience strong sales volume despite record low inventory.   Last summer, I helped buyers compete in frenzied bidding wars and win tough negotiations.  I helped sellers use their leverage to obtain the maximum possible price and negotiate away contingencies.   Barring unexpected changes in the secular economic environment, such as a large rise in interest rates or a significant spike in local unemployment, I think it's safe to say this activity will continue.  

SALES VOLUME 

20 Houses sold last month, up 43% from a year ago but down 31% from August.    It's normal for sales volume to fall steeply at this time of year.  The average drop is 27% from August to September.  This year's September drop was a little steeper than normal.  

Volume peaked in August this year, a little later than typical. 




The real estate market in Louisville is small.  To better understand conditions, it's important to look at longer periods of time than a single month.    

This chart shows sales volume for the last twelve months (ending September). 240 Houses sold during this time period, up 5% from last year.    The trend is clearly up but volume remains 20% below the peak in 2005.  

INVENTORY


The inventory shortage continues in full force.    Only 43 Houses were on the market in September, 19% below last year and down 23% from the previous month.   This year, inventory peaked in May.   


SALES VOLUME AND INVENTORY vs. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE


The chart above shows inventory and sales volume compared to each month's five year average.    The most recent data is for September.  

At a quick glance, you can see that sales volume has been running at average or above levels since April.      Meanwhile, inventory during the last twelve months has been 26% to 62% below average.   

ABSORPTION


Absorption in Louisville was 35.7% in September, compared to 26.4% a year ago.   

MEDIAN PRICE


The median sold price during September was $424,950.    This is an indication of the price points that are selling, not appreciation or depreciation.  A year ago, the median sold price was $398,500. 

DAYS TO OFFER


For closings which occurred during September, the median days on market until a listing received an acceptable offer was 26.    This is compared to 169 a year ago.  

CONCLUSIONS
If you're thinking about buying, educate yourself on market conditions by seeing a lot of inventory with your buyer's agent.   Start early and prepare for tough negotiations in advance.   When an attractive house appears on market, you should already be familiar with the standard contract and have had detailed discussions with your agent on how to make your offer more attractive in a multiple bid environment. 

Sellers, the key to obtaining maximum price is to know the market better than potential buyers and price slightly ahead of the trend.   Allow the listing to stay active long enough for all buyers to see it.   Choose an agent who knows how to use market conditions and multiple offers as leverage for negotiating the highest possible price and possibly remove contract contingencies. 
---
Like this analysis?    Subscribe to my research.       Want to meet me in person?    Attend a Boulder Real Estate Meetup.    Ready to buy or sell?  Call me at 303.746.6896.  

No comments:

Post a Comment