Monday, June 17, 2013

Inventory Shortage in Detail [Market Update]

by Osman Parvez

Taking a breather from the bidding wars and tense negotiations that have characterized the last few months, let me show you what's happening in the current market. 

The chart below is for monthly inventory compared to the 5 year average for Boulder, Erie, Lafayette, Longmont, Louisville, and Superior.   It covers the five months of the year (i.e. year to date).      


I don't normally put this much data onto one chart because it gets a little busy.  In this case it's important to see how the shortage hasn't changed much in most local markets.   

As you can see from the chart, every market in the greater Boulder area had a historically low supply of homes during the first five months of the year.  Erie was better off than most running a consistent shortage of about -30% below the long term average.     Lafayette was consistently running more than -50%.     Louisville bounced from absolute lowest at -62% to better than most with -32%.   Of course, it's a very small market so I wouldn't be surprised to see high volatility. 

The shortage appears to be a longer term phenomenon.   Nobody has a crystal ball, but I believe low supply will continue until (a) the builders step up production and (b) prices rise further.   

Please Note:     Clients are my priority.    Blogging and social events take a backseat to my clients' needs.    During times of high market activity (such as now), new blog posts will be sporadic.   
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