Friday, December 05, 2008

Down and Out in Boulder Colorado

by Osman Parvez
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How strange! Mark Perry recently noted that despite the (now 12 month) recession, unemployment has actually fallen in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

What about unemployment in Colorado? The current estimate shows that it has risen from 3.6% to 5.3%, year over year. In the Boulder MSA, unemployment has risen from 3.2% to 4.5%, with an additional 2,500 unemployed people.

The BLS report also shows the civilian labor force. Guess what? It's up year over year. There were an additional 1,500 people working in October, cutting the year over year change in unemployment by 60% .

Look, I'm no pollyanna and, on the other hand, while I respect Mish, I don't always agree with him. His forecast for another great depression, is overly pessimistic. I expect unemployment to go up significantly in the next 6 months, but I think it's important to note that unemployment has remained surprisingly low given the economic turmoil. Meanwhile unprecedented stimulus efforts are underway across the globe and most have yet to impact the global economy. Colorado is also not alone. Many states still have relatively low unemployment, and this matters because jobs are arguably the most important driver of market stability for primary homes.

p.s. I couldn't help but notice Puerto Rico is also shown in the report. Perhaps driven by the "island time" lifestyle, it registers unemployment above 12%.



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2 comments:

  1. Wow - a 33% yoy increase in unemployment in Boulder? Do the numbers usually have such a high degree of volatility or is this the first crack in the dam? What does this mean for Boulder's housing market? I know several people - professional people - who have been laid off in Boulder, and many many more who are shaking in their crocs...

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  2. Osman, I think Mish is actually optimistic...

    B747

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