Thursday, November 20, 2008

The Bull and the Bear

by Osman Parvez
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The BCBR recently interviewed prominent local (mostly commercial) real estate investors.

A couple of excerpts:

Marcell Arsenault, CEO of Colorado and Santa Fe:
As Arsenault sold off his commercial real estate, he doubled down on his bet for a bad market and took the cash to short, or bet against, real estate, construction and finance stocks.

"When you're part of an industry, it's very hard to go against the incentives of that industry," he said.

But the moves have paid off handsomely during the past year, and Arsenault is now looking to lighten those shorts and invest in the most battered of markets _ residential real estate."I'm going from completely negative on real estate to partially positive on the residential side," he said. "The residential real estate avalanche is two and a half years older, so it's about run its course. We haven't hit a bottom yet in residential, but if the discount is deep enough, then we're buying."

Stephen Tebo, CEO of Tebo Development:
Tebo isn't bullish on the residential market. He's temporarily put on hold a planned mixed-use residential project at 2049 Pearl St.

But he's still confident that the next year will be a good opportunity to buy commercial real estate in the Boulder area.

A lot of sellers are seeing their contracts fall through, Tebo said. "We're able to buy the properties that others can't because we have the cash and financing." In many cases, sellers are willing to discount their properties to Tebo because they know he can quickly close on a deal.



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2 comments:

  1. Osman,
    I recall you said that in the $1,000,000+ Boulder market 8 homes sold in July, 4 sold in August and 0 sold in September. How many sold in October and since we are 3/4ths through November what is this month's run rate?

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  2. Hi Linton,

    Thank you for your comment. For the blog, I only update the Silver Fern Indexes on a quarterly basis. If you are a potential or existing client, we'll gladly do additional research and provide you with immediate information. Call me to discuss.

    ph: 303.746.6896

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