Friday, June 01, 2007

The Peloton Breaks Ground

by Osman Parvez
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There's another giant construction crane in Boulder, but this one's not downtown. Development of the $150MM Peloton development at 33rd and Arapahoe is picking up steam. If you haven't noticed the massive crane, you can't miss the advertising carpet bombing. Our local NPR station is sponsored by the Peloton. City buses carry the slogan of a "new way to live in Boulder" and salespeople were chatting with potential buyers at the Boulder Creek Festival. Through a haze of hyperventilation and hallucinations, I'm pretty sure I even saw the Peloton's advertising while running the Bolder Boulder.

The official ground breaking occurred in mid May, but construction has been underway for a few months prior. It's now a very busy place.

Here are the apparently final details: The Peloton is a 390-unit, mixed-use condo project. The units will range in size from about 650 to 1,900 square feet, with prices starting in the low $300,000s. The 490,000-square-foot complex will feature a fitness center, a rooftop deck with a swimming pool and two hot tubs, and rooms for holding meetings and screening movies. Walking paths and courtyards will dot the landscape. There also will be 17,000 square feet of retail and office space.

Although Boulder has only slightly been impacted by the post housing bubble correction, I imagine it's still not that easy for The Peloton to sell units on a pre-construction basis. The best ones with the nicest views may already be gone though. That's fairly common in high profile developments. Since financing is often tied to presales, expect the marketing efforts to continue.

It's exciting to see this part of Boulder take off. With Transit Village driving re-zoning, expect to see much more development in this part of the City over the next few years. And after spending some time with the Transit Village Area plan, I'm certain that there's opportunity for investors as well.

A couple of our clients have looked at the Peloton and shared their feedback. They had mostly positive impressions, though they weren't ready to write a deposit check. My sense is that the Peloton is going to be a landmark in the City, the first big move in a series of major improvements to an overlooked part of Boulder. We'll be keeping a close watch on execution of the project.

If any readers have impressions to share, feel free to leave a comment.



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9 comments:

  1. Studio apartments at $460/sf! Sign me up! I've always wanted a gold-plated toilet...

    Seriously though, another project marketed to what demographic? I know young working professionals in this town that can't afford even the smallest apartments in this thing - and what are the hoa dues on top of your mortgage? So the transit village gets built, and retired boomers and white-collar tellecommuters move into the newly built adjacent housing, and those who really need to get work to live continue to live in Broomfield, Erie, and Longmont, where it is affordable. Super.

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  2. Woohoo! The higher the prices go out here, the more people want to move to the 'burbs! Up goes my home value...I LOVE the Peleton! :) Seriously, they sound very nice. But I'm confused, didn't Boulder have some kind of housing restrictions? Did they lift those restrictions? Is it just me or are there condos popping up EVERYWHERE??

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  3. I would be really interested to read a critique of the bubblebuster's analysis of boulder home values, in which they predict only dire outcomes. You can find their analysis here:

    http://www.thebubblebuster.com/boulder/forecasts.html

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  4. At a quick glance, I'm not sure what City they've analyzed but their home price range is off by a couple hundred thousand from the Median for Boulder. Maybe they combined attached and deattached dwellings?

    Reading on they say "in 2006 Boulder real home prices actually fell nearly $5,000." Uh.. maybe you should ask them for their dataset because that's incredibly wrong.

    In any case, that's it for me (for now). I'm heading out for the weekend. I'll turn comments back to "unmoderated" in case anyone else wants to take a stab.

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  5. Very interesting. I suspect if I asked then about *your* calculations, they'd say exactly the same thing ("the data is wrong").

    Who am I or other prospective home buyers supposed to believe? THe people with a vested interest in making me buy (you & Silver fern) or the fire & brimstone type (BB)?

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  6. it seems to me that their calculation is adjusting for inflation (only "real price" but not "nominal price" shows the $5k loss). So it's hard to say whose data is wrong...

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  7. Uh.. maybe you should ask them for their dataset because that's incredibly wrong.

    They publish the data on their site.
    Nominal $
    2005 357K
    2006 363K

    Since inflation is 3% or so, the small increase translates to a real decline in median.

    Looks like their numbers are consisent with your combined SFR + attached numbers. Maybe HPI?

    Your numbers are from BARA, no? They always seem to have two datasets: One published inventory for PR, and another which is actually available for sale. The latter is the link from your website, currently listing 1207 on the front page, but actually returns 1317 listing when you dig thru.

    (They really need to clean up their act and get a clean set of numbers. They are absolutely not increasing confidence in their ability to compile stats when their own numbers disagree.)

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  8. Who am I or other prospective home buyers supposed to believe? THe people with a vested interest in making me buy (you & Silver fern) or the fire & brimstone type (BB)?

    Chris, you really need to understand one thing about this blog. I'm not trying to convince you or anybody else to buy (or sell) real estate. My goal is simple. Provide the best possible information about local real estate, period. I write about statistics and trends, marketing tips, or due diligence to the best of my knowledge and with the intent to help people make a better real estate decision. With my financial analysis background, I aim to provide unique insight beyond generic analysis. When I sit down with clients for a work session, you'd be surprised how often I'm the conservative one recommending caution and even renting (for a period) instead of buying.

    When you decide to buy or sell something in Boulder, after spending some time on the blog, I hope you consider The Silver Fern Team. It's really that simple.

    Ultimately, I'd like to see comments on this blog increase. Open and honest dialogue is a big part of how we do business. So I welcome your thoughts.

    As for whose numbers are better, as a rule I tend to discount analysis conducted from afar. Without on the ground knowledge of what's happening in this market, it's hard to see relevant detail. Glomming together data to average results is like trying to pick a single winning stock by only looking at a broad index such as the S&P 500. But when I have a few minutes, I'll take another look at BB's analysis.

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  9. Anon,

    BARA compiles statistics from IRESIS. The Silver Fern Team relies on both sources, among others for analysis. We're not locked into that and if a better source becomes available, we'll switch. Utlimately, the best numbers are probably from the tax assessor but I haven't seen the additional value in buying their dataset as yet. Perhaps down the road...

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