Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Total Existing Home Sales (NAR)

by Osman Parvez


A few days ago I posted our local real estate market updates (see sidebar). Today the National Association of Realtors (NAR) published their report on existing home sales.
Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – declined 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.62 million units in June from an upwardly revised level of 6.71 million May. Last month’s sales were 8.9 percent below the 7.27 million-unit pace in June 2005.
As expected, sales are cooling across the country and many markets are seeing a return to a more normal state. Some areas, including the Boulder market, are fairing better than others. The latest Boulder Market update shows sales in June up 16% from a year ago. However, we've also had some slow months this year (March and April) and Sales volume is running about 2% lower than this time last year while median prices are up about 3%.







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4 comments:

  1. If your goal is to become the best blog than you need to provide accurate information. NOTHING is selling in Boulder. The amount of homes on the market is rising. There are price reduction signs everywhere! I have been looking to buy in Boulder County...and specifically Boulder since last October. I have watched homes go off the market and come back on 3 times now. We just renewed our lease for another 6 months...and maybe longer. I don't know where you are getting your number from but they are WRONG WRONG WRONG!

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  2. First, thanks for commenting.

    My data comes directly from the MLS, from a reputable soure like the Boulder Area Realtor Association's monthly publications, or from my own research. I then run an analysis on the data in Excel and generate my charts and graphs.

    I've checked BARA's data a number of times and they are accurate to the MLS. I suppose I could drive to the tax assessor's office and check each property transfer myself, but frankly I don't see the need. There isn't a compelling reason to put fake sales on the MLS.

    There is a reason to "refresh" listings however.

    A few months ago, someone suggested that the inventory numbers were inaccurate because of this phenomenon so I did a quick analysis. I looked at withdrawn and expired listings over the past few years in both Boulder and Longmont. If there was increasing levels of manipulation, I would have expected to see it show up here as an increase in the number of withdrawn and expired listings. It didn't. The number looked pretty stable to me. Here's the analysis, if you'd like to see for yourself. Note 2006 was to the date of that post's publication.

    Look, I know things can look skewed when you only rely on your own personal experience. I live in Martin Acres in South Boulder. If I thought the whole Boulder market was like Martin Acres, it would appear as all of Boulder was hot. That's why I not only publish my analysis of Boulder using BARA summaries, I break it down by price point for both attached dwellings and single family homes. If you look at that analysis, you'll see homes between $300 to 500K are still very liquid, but for most price points above $500K it slows down considerably.

    If you have a better source of info, please let me know because I'd be glad to use it. But at this point, I think I'm using the best available data.

    p.s. Here's what I don't understand about YOUR situation. You say you are seeing nothing sell and there are "price reduced" signs everywhere. Sounds like a buyer's market. But you also said you have been looking to buy in Boulder since last October but haven't found anything. Uh, something doesn't make sense. How can they both be true?

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  3. We have changed in Kansas City from a sellers market to a severe buyers market. I'm getting to be an expert on working short sales.

    http://www.DowellTaggart.com

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  4. We've mostly dealt with foreclosures from the buy side but just recently picked up a new foreclosure listing. The lack of responsiveness from the banks continues to be our biggest frustration. How are they in Kansas City?

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